EQΦS Forecast
EQΦS Forecast StudyTesla Roadster · SpaceX packageOctober 19, 2026
Cold gas thrusters · simulator and study

Can the Roadster SpaceX jump, fly, drive ? The full calculation.

Calculations verified by EQOS Forecast Asia

Tesla made a Roadster prototype jump over five vehicles on October 15, 2026 at McGregor (Texas). This page recalculates everything that can be recalculated from the public figures. Each section opens with the conclusion and the key figures, then gives the visual, then the equations, so that anyone can redo the calculation. Modeling produced with EQOS Forecast, the mathematical modeling and prediction tool from The Bright Company.

The October 15 demonstration, to scale in height: inverted ramp and flip (≈ 20.7 m), jump over the five vehicles (8.2 m announced, the Semi at 3.95 m), braked landing (≈ 3.2 g).

Key takeaways

14 questions, 14 calculated answers
Performance: a real car
Range, top speed and 0-60 mph consistent with the announcements. No thrusters.
Thrust: a track toy
0.19 s above half thrust per fill-up, then 2 to 6 h of recharge at a station.
Rocket: a demonstrator
Thrust above weight for 1.25 s; 6 to 8 s of flight at the theoretical maximum.
Can it fly?
8.0 s maximum
Mass decays exponentially (time constant 56 s). With 319 kg of gas: 8 s. Flying 30 s would need 995 kg of gas.
80 kN for 5 s?
7.4 kN average
80 kN is the peak at the first instant. A fixed nozzle loses half its thrust in 0.19 s (200 L).
Is the 8.2 m jump possible?
7.8 m calculated
Yes, but only with 600 L through a 380 bar regulator. With 300 L: 2.2 m.
Landing
12.7 m/s without braking
Braking with the thrusters (42 kg of gas) is needed to touch down at 3 m/s and 3.1 g. Otherwise 55 g: wheels destroyed.
Announced 0-60 mph
0.83 s Rocket, real
Thrust 0.92 s and Rocket 0.83 s are consistent with the announcements. The 0.59 s figure requires constant thrust.
How much gas on board?
319 kg 600 L, 690 bar
Real air takes up 54% more volume than ideal gas. The 250 kg reported figure corresponds to 437 bar.
The tank cools down
−40 °C after 25%
Adiabatic venting: −94 °C at half the tank. Certified liner limit reached after a quarter of the gas.
Nozzles
Ø 15 mm × 4 throats
80 kN at 690 bar require a 6.96 cm² throat and 113 kg/s. Full expansion would liquefy the air: effective Isp ≈ 56 s.
Suction
6.9 kPa of vacuum
4,700 kg of downforce = 7% of atmospheric pressure under the floor, skirts at 7 to 9 mm off the ground. Feasible.
Range
619 km at 110 km/h
The announced 300 miles is conservative (74 kWh is enough). Every 10 kW of permanent suction costs 37%.
Top speed
418 kW for 230 mph
230 mph fits within 1 MW. 330 mph would need 1,205 kW: out of reach.
Battery at 1 MW
14 to 52 s before +15 °C
141 to 354 kW of heat depending on the cell. Tenable as a peak, not continuously.
Safety
9 kg TNT equivalent
39 MJ in 600 L at 690 bar: window breakage at 28 m. Jet at 135-142 dB at 15 m, blast 90 m/s at 10 m.
Recharge by the car itself?
100-144 kWh per fill-up
Compressing 319 kg of air costs the whole battery and 5 to 7 h at 20 kW. Hence the nitrogen station.
Gas efficiency
0.7% battery → car
Compressor 50% × jet 26% × propulsion 5.3%. The electric motors do the same work for 129 times less energy.
Most profitable lever
× 1.7 height per kg of gas
Point all ten nozzles downward for the jump: gravity loss drops from 50% to 15% of the gas. Same gas, 22 m instead of 13.

Quick read: Tesla's figures are consistent with each other once you understand that 80 kN is a peak, not an average. The demonstration is real. Flight is bounded by an exponential law, not an engineering detail. The vehicle's hard point is gas storage, not the jump.

01Jump simulator

An engine that actually empties the tank.Trajectory integrated step by step, real gas, adiabatic venting, pressure regulator, thrust decay, braking before touchdown, the full length of the car checked over the obstacles.
Integrator
RK4, 2 ms
Tank
real gas
Uncertainty
1,500 draws
Reconstructed architecture of the Rocket version, side view. The exact nozzle positions are not published: the diagram places the four thrust nozzles at the rear and the six lift/rotation nozzles spread under the floor and on the sides, as described by Tesla.

Vehicle
2,400 kg
75 kg
Thrusters
80 kN
60%
1.00 s
690 bar
380 bar
600 L
56 s
Launch
60 km/h
0%
0.30 m

Hypothetical simulation. These results are not demonstrated Roadster performance.

Energy and mass balance (consistency check)

Probabilistic mode: what happens if the unknowns vary?

1,500 random draws around the current settings: vertical thrust ±20%, duration ±25%, mass ±150 kg, specific impulse 50 to 65 s. Read off the probability of clearing the Semi and the spread of the height.

The simulator's equations

Motion. The car is a variable-mass point. Position \((x,y)\), velocity \((v_x,v_y)\), mass \(m\):

$$\frac{dx}{dt}=v_x,\quad \frac{dy}{dt}=v_y,\quad \frac{dv_x}{dt}=\frac{F_x}{m},\quad \frac{dv_y}{dt}=\frac{F_y}{m}-g,\quad \frac{dm}{dt}=-\dot m$$

4th-order Runge-Kutta integration, 2 ms step during thrust. On flat ground, liftoff only happens if \(F_y \ge m g\). On a ramp of slope \(p\): \(\theta=\arctan(p)\), \(v_{x0}=v_0\cos\theta\), \(v_{y0}=v_0\sin\theta\).

Tank. The stored mass comes from the equation of state with compressibility factor \(Z\) (air, 293 K): \(m_0 = \dfrac{P_0 V}{Z(P_0)\,R\,T_0}\) with \(R=287.05\) J/(kg·K). Venting in under a second is adiabatic: the entropy of the remaining gas stays constant, which gives the tank pressure and temperature as a function of the remaining mass fraction \(f=m/m_0\). These curves \(P(f)\), \(T(f)\) are tabulated from a reference equation of state (Lemmon et al. for air) and interpolated.

Thrust. For a choked fixed-throat nozzle, thrust is proportional to the supply pressure: \(F=C_F A_t P_a\). With a regulator set to \(P_{reg}\): \(P_a=\min(P_{tank},P_{reg})\), hence

$$F(t)=F_0\cdot\min\!\left(1,\frac{P_{tank}(t)}{P_{reg}}\right)$$

A variable-throat nozzle holds \(F_0\) as long as \(P_{tank}\) is above a floor (60 bar). Only the lift nozzles fire during the jump; mass flow is \(\dot m = F_y/V_e\), with an exhaust velocity that follows the gas cooling: \(V_e = I_{sp}\,g\sqrt{T_{tank}/T_0}\).

Landing. On the way down, braking starts at height \(h_f=\dfrac{v_y^2-v_t^2}{2a}\) with \(a=F_y/m-g\) and \(v_t=3\) m/s the targeted touchdown speed (the simulator applies a 1/0.6 margin because thrust drops during braking). On the ground, the suspension (0.15 m of travel) absorbs \(\bar F = \dfrac{m v_t^2}{2 s}\).

Clearance. The car's length (4.4 m) is taken into account: the front and the rear, at the floor height, must clear each obstacle along the whole trajectory, not just at the apex.

Energy balance. Two checks run on every calculation: the work \(\int F\cdot v\,dt\) corrected for the ejected-mass term must equal the car's change in mechanical energy; and the car cannot receive more energy than the jet contains, \(\tfrac12 m_{gaz}V_e^2\).

02What Tesla showed and said

A real demonstration, press figures that diverge.On October 15, 2026 at McGregor, an unmanned Roadster drove upside down, did a mid-air half-flip, then jumped over five vehicles. Pressure, gas, mass and battery remain uncertain.
Announced height
8.2 m
Nozzles
10
Production
2028
The public figures, ranked by reliability
Data pointValueStatusSource
Date and locationOctober 15, 2026, SpaceX McGregor (Texas)confirmedFortune, CNN, Fox
Number of nozzles10 (4 at the rear, 6 for lift and rotation)confirmedMotorTrend, Tech-Insider
Thrust"more than 80 kN", supersonic jet, four rear nozzlesannouncedTesla via Paul Tan, BigGo
VersionsPerformance (2 seats), Thrust (2 seats, 200 L), Rocket (1 seat, 600 L)confirmedTesla, Fortune, InsideEVs
0-60 mph< 1.6 s / < 0.9 s / < 0.59 s; demo measured 0.81 sannouncedElectrek, Car and Driver
Storage pressure"about 10,000 psi" (690 bar)announcedMoravy via Top Gear
Pressure shown on the dashboard5,500 psi (380 bar), read on the "Thruster" screenphotoTeslarati
Onboard gas mass≈ 250 kgreportedDrive Tesla, Paul Tan
GasNitrogen per Moravy; "air" per other sourcesdivergenceTop Gear vs Tech-Insider
Thrust duration per fill-up"about 5 s"reportedMoravy, Sawyer Merritt
Tank recharge2 to 6 h at a nitrogen station; target < 30 minreportedInsideEVs, Hagerty
Suction downforce> 4,700 kg; cornering > 2 g (1.26 g on tires alone)announcedDrive Tesla, Musk
Power1,000 kW (Performance); 800 to 1,000 kW depending on versionreportedTop Gear
Battery"more than 100 kWh"; 150 kWh per one sourcedivergenceMotorTrend, BASENOR
MassTarget < 1,700 kg (base version), not certifiedtargetTop Gear
Range"more than 300 miles" (620 promised in 2017)announcedFortune
Top speed> 230 mph (370 km/h)announcedElectrek
Jump height27 ft (8.2 m) over the 5 vehicles; ≈ 68 ft (20.7 m) from the ramp, ≈ 3.2 g on landingannounced / reportedNBC, Yahoo Autos
Reservations$50,000 (Performance), $250,000 (Thrust), Rocket by invitationconfirmedTesla
Production2028; Rocket version not street-legalconfirmedTesla, Fortune
RegulationThe FAA does not consider the Roadster an aircraftconfirmedCBS, Politico

03Tank: mass, pressure, cold

319 kg of air, 700 kg of system, and a gas that freezes as it empties.At 690 bar air is no longer an ideal gas. The reported 250 kg only fits in 600 L at 437 bar. In a fast vent, the gas drops below −40 °C after a quarter of the tank.
Z factor at 690 bar
1.54
Gas + tanks
≈ 700 kg
Burst energy
39 MJ
Pressure (orange, left scale) and temperature (blue, right scale) of the air remaining in a 690 bar tank as it is vented with no heat exchange. The gas drops below −40 °C, the usual limit for certified tank liners, after 25% of the mass is consumed.
Gas mass (solid) and estimated composite tank mass (hatched) for each configuration. Tank mass equals 0.785 times the Z factor times the gas mass: the higher the pressure, the more the tank weighs per kilogram of gas. Raising pressure reduces volume, not mass.
The Rocket carries about 700 kg of gas and tanks: 319 kg of compressed air + 360 to 414 kg of composite shell (0.785 × Z factor above). Its real mass is therefore 1,700 kg (base, no air, no tanks) + ≈ 700 kg ≈ 2,400 kg, not the 1,700 kg of the base version alone. This whole page uses 2,400 kg for the Rocket.
Detailed configuration table
ConfigurationZ factorGas massRecoverable energyBurst energyTank mass
200 L, 690 bar, air (Thrust)1.54106 kg16.8 kWh13 MJ (3.1 kg TNT)120 to 138 kg
600 L, 690 bar, air (Rocket)1.54319 kg50.4 kWh39 MJ (9.3 kg TNT)360 to 414 kg
600 L, 437 bar, air (reported 250 kg)1.25250 kg36.0 kWh32 MJ (7.7 kg TNT)230 to 264 kg
600 L, 690 bar, nitrogen1.60297 kg49.1 kWh38 MJ (9.0 kg TNT)360 to 414 kg
600 L, 690 bar, helium1.3352 kg59.9 kWh45 MJ (10.8 kg TNT)360 to 414 kg
Tank equations

Stored mass. \(m=\dfrac{PV}{Z(P,T)\,R\,T}\). The factor \(Z\) comes from a reference equation of state (Lemmon, Jacobsen, Penoncello and Friend, 2000, for air; Span et al. for nitrogen). At 690 bar and 293 K: \(Z_{air}=1.544\), \(Z_{N_2}=1.603\). The Redlich-Kwong equation used in the previous version of this page gave 1.463, a 5.6% difference on mass.

Real pressure for 250 kg in 600 L. Density \(\rho=250/0.6=417\) kg/m³; inverting the equation of state gives \(P=437\) bar (6,330 psi).

Adiabatic venting. In under a second, the gas does not exchange heat with the wall. The gas remaining in the tank undergoes isentropic expansion: \(s(\rho,T)=s_0\). For an ideal gas this gives \(T/T_0=(\rho/\rho_0)^{\gamma-1}\) and \(P/P_0=(\rho/\rho_0)^{\gamma}\) with \(\gamma=7/5\). The chart values come from the real equation of state, which departs from the ideal law by 10 to 15% at these pressures.

Recoverable energy (exergy). The maximum work the gas can deliver as it returns to ambient: \(E_x=m\left[(h-h_0)-T_0(s-s_0)\right]\). Cross-checked with the ideal-gas isothermal formula, \(E_x\approx mRT_0\ln(P/P_0)=48.6\) kWh, within 3.6% of the real-gas calculation.

Burst energy. Isentropic expansion of the gas down to 1 atm: \(E_b=m\,(u-u_e)\) with \(u\) the internal energy. The TNT equivalent uses 4.184 MJ/kg. A pneumatic burst releases about 40% of this energy as a shock wave (section 13).

Tank mass. For carbon-wound composite tanks (type IV), mass is proportional to the product of pressure and volume: \(m_{res}\approx \dfrac{PV}{100\text{ to }115\text{ kJ/kg}}\), figures taken from automotive 700 bar hydrogen tanks.

A useful law. With \(PV=Z\,m_{gaz}RT\) and \(m_{res}=PV/k\): \(\dfrac{m_{res}}{m_{gaz}}=\dfrac{Z\,R\,T_0}{k}=0.785\,Z\). At 690 bar (\(Z=1.54\)) the tank weighs 1.21 times the gas; at 440 bar (\(Z=1.25\)) 0.98 times. Impulse per kilogram of complete system goes from 0.25 to 0.28 kN·s/kg (effective exhaust velocity 549 m/s).

04Nozzles: what 80 kN requires

Four 15 mm throats, 113 kg/s, and air that would liquefy if expanded fully.The geometry is not published, but 80 kN at 690 bar pins it down. Full expansion would give Mach 5.2 and 45 K: impossible, the air freezes. The jet exits underexpanded, hence an effective specific impulse of about 56 s instead of 72.
Throat area
6.96 cm²
Flow at 80 kN
113 kg/s
Effective Isp
≈ 56 s
Cross-section of one of the four nozzles, dimensions deduced from the 80 kN figure. Temperatures and Mach numbers are for ideal expansion; the liquefaction limit (80 K) caps the real expansion at Mach 3.6 and a 7 bar exit pressure.
Calculated figures
Quantity690 bar supply380 bar supply (regulated)
Ideal thrust coefficient \(C_F\)1.671.64
Total throat area6.96 cm²12.9 cm²
Diameter of each throat (4 nozzles)14.9 mm20.2 mm
Mass flow at 80 kN113 kg/s115 kg/s
Ideal exhaust velocity706 m/s (Isp 72 s)694 m/s (Isp 71 s)
Exit Mach for full expansion5.24.7
Corresponding exit temperature45 K54 K
Exit/throat area ratio (full expansion)3020
Nozzle equations

For a gas with a heat-capacity ratio \(\gamma=1.4\) and a choked throat (upstream pressure at least 1.9 times downstream pressure), mass flow depends only on supply pressure and temperature:

$$\dot m = \frac{A_t P_a}{\sqrt{R T_a}}\;\sqrt{\gamma}\left(\frac{2}{\gamma+1}\right)^{\frac{\gamma+1}{2(\gamma-1)}} = 0.6847\,\frac{A_t P_a}{\sqrt{R T_a}}$$

Thrust is given by \(F=C_F A_t P_a\). For ideal expansion down to ambient pressure \(P_e=P_{amb}\):

$$C_F=\sqrt{\frac{2\gamma^2}{\gamma-1}\left(\frac{2}{\gamma+1}\right)^{\frac{\gamma+1}{\gamma-1}}\left[1-\left(\frac{P_e}{P_a}\right)^{\frac{\gamma-1}{\gamma}}\right]}$$

Exit Mach: \(\dfrac{P_a}{P_e}=\left(1+\dfrac{\gamma-1}{2}M_e^2\right)^{\frac{\gamma}{\gamma-1}}\); exit temperature: \(T_e=\dfrac{T_a}{1+\frac{\gamma-1}{2}M_e^2}\). Air liquefies around 80 K at 1 bar, which caps \(M_e\) at about 3.65. Effective exhaust velocity with the pressure term: \(V_e=\dfrac{F}{\dot m}=u_e+\dfrac{(P_e-P_{amb})A_e}{\dot m}\).

05Real thrust over time

80 kN at the first instant, 7.4 kN on average over 5 seconds.A fixed nozzle loses thrust in proportion to pressure. "80 kN" and "5 seconds" are two true figures, just not at the same time.
200 L: thrust < 50%
0.19 s
600 L: thrust > weight
1.25 s
Impulse 200 L / 600 L
37 / 95 kN·s
Thrust of a fixed nozzle supplied at 690 bar, no regulator, starting at 80 kN. The green zone is the time during which vertical thrust exceeds the weight of a 2,400 kg Rocket: the car can only lift off within it.
Numerical markers
TankThrust < 50%Thrust < 20%Thrust < 10%Total impulseAverage over 5 sThrust > weight (2,400 kg)
200 L (Thrust)0.19 s0.66 s1.31 s37 kN·s7.4 kNnever at 48 kN vertical
600 L (Rocket)0.55 s1.84 s3.38 s95 kN·s19 kN1.25 s
Venting equations

At every instant, flow \(\dot m = F/V_e\) and \(F = F_0\,P_{tank}/P_0\) (fixed, choked throat). For an ideal gas, the tank density \(\rho\) follows \(\dot\rho = -\dot m/V\) and pressure \(P=P_0(\rho/\rho_0)^{\gamma}\). Combining them, the isentropic venting of a tank through a choked throat gives a closed-form law:

$$\frac{P(t)}{P_0}=\left(1+\frac{\gamma-1}{2}\,\frac{t}{\tau}\right)^{-\frac{2\gamma}{\gamma-1}}=\left(1+\frac{t}{5\tau}\right)^{-7}\qquad \tau=\frac{V}{A_t\,\Gamma\,\sqrt{R T_0}}$$

with \(\Gamma=0.6847\). For the Thrust, \(\tau\approx0.94\) s; for the Rocket, \(\tau\approx2.8\) s. The table values use the real equation of state rather than the ideal law, which shortens the times slightly.

Total impulse is \(\int_0^\infty F\,dt\). The "average thrust over 5 s" is this impulse divided by 5 s. Simple check: 106 kg ejected at 549 m/s gives 58 kN·s total; a fixed nozzle only exploits 37 of it because the end of venting happens at low pressure and low temperature.

060 to 60 mph

Thrust 0.92 s and Rocket 0.83 s: consistent to within 2%. The 0.59 s figure requires constant thrust.The Performance's 1.6 s gives the motor force at the wheel (28.5 kN). The real, decaying thrust is added to it. The 0.81 s measured in the demo matches a simple venting exactly.
Motor force at the wheel
28.5 kN
Rocket, real venting
0.83 s
For 0.59 s, fixed throat
117 kN
Calculated 0 to 60 mph times (bars) compared with Tesla's announcements (markers). The orange bars use the real thrust of a fixed nozzle as it vents; the hatched bar assumes constant 80 kN.
Case table
CaseMassCalculated 0-60 mphAnnouncedReading
Performance, tires alone (1.26 g)1,700 kg2.17 s—grip limit with no suction
Performance, with suction1,700 kg1.60 s< 1.6 sconsistent (motor force 28.5 kN)
Thrust, 200 L, decaying thrust1,940 kg0.92 s< 0.9 sconsistent to 2%
Rocket, 600 L, decaying thrust2,400 kg0.83 s0.81 s (demo)consistent to 2.5%
Rocket, constant 80 kN (variable throat)2,400 kg0.59 s< 0.59 srequires regulated thrust
Rocket, all 10 nozzles rearward (160 kN)2,400 kg0.43 s—physical bound

Holding 0.59 s with a fixed nozzle would require 117 kN at the start. Maximum Thrust mass to stay under 0.9 s with real venting: 1,905 kg.

Acceleration equations

Tractive force available at the wheel, limited by grip, power and torque:

$$F_{roue}=\min\Big(\mu\,(mg+D),\;\frac{\eta P_{max}}{v},\;F_{cap}\Big)$$

with \(\mu=1.26\) (grip coefficient deduced from Tesla's "1.26 g on the tires" claim), \(D=46.1\) kN of suction downforce, \(\eta=0.92\), \(P_{max}=1\) MW. \(F_{cap}=28.5\) kN is obtained by inverting the announced 1.6 s. Equation of motion: \(m\,\dot v = F_{roue}+F_{tuyères}(t)\), integrated up to \(v=26.82\) m/s. Nozzle thrust follows section 5.

Torque cross-check: \(F=\dfrac{C\cdot i}{r}=\dfrac{1\,302\times 9}{0.35}=33.5\) kN for a gear ratio of 9 and a 0.35 m wheel radius; the order of magnitude matches the inverted 28.5 kN.

07Jump and landing

The 8.2 m jump is reproducible, but only with 600 L and a regulator. Landing costs as much as the climb.With 300 L, height drops to 2.2 m. Without braking, impact at 12.7 m/s would impose 55 g on the suspension. The reported 3.2 g proves Tesla braked with the thrusters.
600 L + regulator
7.84 m
Climb + braking gas
100-130 kg
Suspension, 3 m/s touchdown
3.1 g
Height reached by the same thrust (48 kN vertical for 0.7 s, 2,075 kg) depending on how the tank feeds the nozzles. The Semi (3.95 m) and the announced height (8.23 m) serve as references.
Heights and landings, numerically
Configuration (48 kN vertical, 0.7 s, 2,075 kg)HeightGas consumed
Old simulator: constant pressure, 300 L7.99 m61 kg
300 L, real venting, no regulator2.23 m38 kg
300 L, 380 bar regulator5.33 m51 kg
600 L, 380 bar regulator7.84 m61 kg
Announced by Tesla8.23 m—
Landing fromFree-fall speedTargeted touchdownBraking impulseGas80 kN braking forSuspension (15 cm travel)
8.2 m (5 vehicles)12.7 m/s3 m/s23.3 kN·s42 kg0.41 s, from 3.2 m72 kN = 3.1 g, 18 kN per wheel
8.2 m12.7 m/s5 m/s18.5 kN·s34 kg0.33 s200 kN = 8.5 g
20.7 m (ramp)20.2 m/s3 m/s41.2 kN·s75 kg0.73 s, from 8.4 m72 kN = 3.1 g
8.2 m without braking12.7 m/s12.7 m/s00—55 g: wheels destroyed

The simulator shows that with a fixed nozzle behind a 380 bar regulator, the pressure left after the climb is no longer enough to brake a 2,475 kg car: vertical thrust drops below weight. Landing like in the demo requires either a variable-throat nozzle, a pressure reserve dedicated to braking, or a lighter car. A full jump (climb + braking) consumes 100 to 130 kg of gas depending on mass, a third to half a tank.

Jump and landing equations

Height reached after thrust: \(H=y_1+\dfrac{v_{y1}^2}{2g}\) where \(y_1\), \(v_{y1}\) are the height and vertical velocity at the end of thrust (integrated, section 1). For a constant thrust \(F_v\) over a duration \(T\) and constant mass: \(v_{y1}=(F_v/m-g)T\), \(y_1=\tfrac12(F_v/m-g)T^2\).

Free fall: \(v_{imp}=\sqrt{2gH}\). Braking at thrust \(F_v\): deceleration \(a=F_v/m-g\), trigger height \(h_f=\dfrac{v_{imp}^2-v_t^2}{2a}\), duration \(\dfrac{v_{imp}-v_t}{a}\), gas \(\dfrac{m(v_{imp}-v_t)}{V_e}\). Suspension: \(\bar F=\dfrac{m v_t^2}{2s}\) with \(s=0.15\) m.

Chassis flex on landing, treating the tanks (700 kg) as a load at mid-wheelbase \(L_e=2.7\) m resting on two supports: \(M=\dfrac{m_{res}\,a\,L_e}{4}=15\) kN·m at 3.2 g, 23 kN·m at 5 g. Minimum section modulus at 300 MPa with a 1.5 safety factor: 74 to 116 cm³. A carbon shell absorbs it; this is not the hard point.

08Barrel roll and flip

Rotations cost little gas. The difficulty is precision.A full barrel roll in one second needs 18.5 kg of gas, a flip 16 kg. But a 1% impulse error, or a 10 ms valve delay, shifts the landing attitude by 3.6°.
Roll inertia
726 kg·m²
360° roll in 1 s
18.5 kg
Error for 1%
3.6°
Front view: the side nozzles (0.9 m arm) create the roll torque. Starting then stopping a roll in one second takes two 5.1 kN·s impulses, i.e. 34 kN for 0.15 s each.
Maneuvers, numerically
ManeuverInertiaAngular rateImpulse per nozzle (start, then stop)GasThrust for a 0.15 s impulse
360° roll in 1 s (0.9 m arm)726 kg·m²6.28 rad/s5.1 kN·s × 218.5 kg34 kN
180° pitch flip in 1.2 s (2 m arm)3,362 kg·m²2.62 rad/s4.4 kN·s × 216 kg29 kN
20° yaw correction in 0.5 s3,702 kg·m²0.70 rad/s1.3 kN·s × 24.7 kg8.6 kN
Rotation equations

Inertia of a homogeneous box of mass \(m_c\): \(I_{roulis}=\dfrac{m_c(W^2+H^2)}{12}\), \(I_{tangage}=\dfrac{m_c(L^2+H^2)}{12}\), \(I_{lacet}=\dfrac{m_c(L^2+W^2)}{12}\), to which the tanks are added (0.35 m-radius cylinder for roll, point mass at 0.8 m for pitch and yaw). Dimensions 4.4 × 1.9 × 1.1 m, body 1,700 kg, tanks 700 kg.

To turn by an angle \(\theta\) over a duration \(\Delta t\) at constant speed: \(\omega=\theta/\Delta t\), angular momentum \(L=I\omega\), impulse of a nozzle with arm \(r\): \(J=L/r\), once to start, once to stop. Gas: \(2J/V_e\). Attitude error: \(\delta\theta=\theta\cdot\delta J/J\); valve delay: \(\delta\theta=\omega\,\delta t\).

09How long can it fly?

8 seconds at the theoretical maximum. Flying one minute would require two-thirds of the mass as gas.In hover, mass decays exponentially with a time constant equal to the specific impulse. It is a law, not a setting. Electric lift is not an answer: 1.2 to 2.4 MW for a battery that supplies 1.
319 kg, Isp 56 s
8.0 s
For 30 s
995 kg
Rotors, 2 m²
2.4 MW
Maximum hover duration for a 2,400 kg car, by onboard gas mass and specific impulse. The dots mark the two plausible Rocket configurations.
Numerical markers
Onboard gas (2,400 kg total)Isp 50 sIsp 56 sIsp 70 s
319 kg (600 L at 690 bar)7.1 s8.0 s10.0 s
250 kg (reported)5.5 s6.2 s7.7 s
To fly 30 s995 kg of gas (Isp 56 s), i.e. 41% of the mass
To fly 60 s1,578 kg of gas, i.e. 66% of the mass
Electric lift (2,400 kg, figure of merit 0.7)PowerDuration on 150 kWh
2 m² of rotors2.4 MW3.8 min
8 m² of rotors1.2 MW7.6 min
Current fans reversed (80 kW, 0.4 m²)1.4 kN6% of weight
Hover equations

Thrust = weight: \(\dot m\,V_e=mg\) with \(V_e=I_{sp}g\), so \(\dot m = m/I_{sp}\) and

$$m(t)=m_0\,e^{-t/I_{sp}}\qquad t_{max}=I_{sp}\ln\frac{m_0}{m_0-m_{gaz}}$$

Gas fraction needed for a duration \(T\): \(1-e^{-T/I_{sp}}\). Rotor lift (momentum theory): induced power \(P=\dfrac{1}{\mathrm{FM}}\sqrt{\dfrac{(mg)^3}{2\rho A}}\) with a figure of merit \(\mathrm{FM}=0.7\) and \(\rho=1.2\) kg/m³.

10The suction fans

The most credible part of the vehicle, with a sudden failure point.4,700 kg of downforce needs a 7% vacuum under the floor and skirts within a centimeter of the ground. If a skirt fails while cornering at 3 g, grip drops back to 1.26 g within milliseconds.
Vacuum
6.9 kPa
Skirt clearance
7-9 mm
Theoretical cornering
3.7-4.7 g
Cross-section of the floor: the fans extract the air under the pan, the skirts limit leakage, atmospheric pressure presses the car down. Leak flow under the skirts reaches 107 m/s.
Calculated figures
QuantityValueAssumption
Announced downforce46.1 kN4,700 kg
Effective underbody area6.7 m²80% of 4.4 × 1.9 m
Required vacuum6.9 kPa (6.8% atm)downforce / area
Leak flow for 80 kW of fans5.8 to 7.5 m³/sefficiency 0.5 to 0.65
Average skirt clearance7 to 9 mmperimeter 12.6 m, discharge coefficient 0.6
Downforce / weight (1,700 kg · 2,400 kg)2.76 · 1.96allows driving on a ceiling with a 22 to 29 kN margin
Theoretical cornering (1,700 kg · 2,400 kg)4.7 g · 3.7 ggrip 1.26; Tesla announces "more than 2 g", lower bound
Vertical load per tire, suction active15.7 to 17.4 kN1,600 to 1,775 kg per wheel
Cost in range for 10 kW permanent−37%section 11
Suction equations

Vacuum: \(\Delta P = D/A_{eff}\). Air entry speed under the skirt: \(u=\sqrt{2\Delta P/\rho}=107\) m/s. Flow the fans can extract: \(Q=\eta_f P_{fan}/\Delta P\). Equivalent clearance: \(e=\dfrac{Q}{C_d\,u\,L_{per}}\) with \(C_d=0.6\). Maximum lateral acceleration: \(a_y=\mu\,\dfrac{mg+D}{m}\). Driving on a ceiling requires \(D>mg\).

11Range and top speed

300 miles is conservative, 230 mph is tenable, 330 mph is not.At 110 km/h, 74 kWh of usable capacity gives 483 km. The gap with the announced battery absorbs about 5 kW of permanent suction. Top speed is bounded by drag power, which grows as the cube of speed.
Range, 100 kWh
619 km
230 mph
418 kW
330 mph
1,205 kW
Power at the wheels required to hold a speed (drag area 0.55 m², 1,700 kg). The horizontal line is the available power (1 MW): it crosses the curve around 310 mph.
Range at 110 km/h for a 1,700 kg car with 100 kWh of usable capacity, by the fan power held continuously.
Consumption and speed tables
CaseConsumptionRange, 100 kWhRange, 150 kWh
1,700 kg, 110 km/h, fans off154 Wh/km619 km928 km
2,400 kg (Rocket), 110 km/h175 Wh/km542 km813 km
1,700 kg, 130 km/h192 Wh/km496 km744 km
1,700 kg, 110 km/h, 10 kW of suction244 Wh/km389 km584 km
1,700 kg, 110 km/h, 80 kW of suction881 Wh/km108 km162 km
SpeedPower at the wheels requiredMaximum drag area for 1 MWVerdict
230 mph (370 km/h)418 kW1.35 m²achievable
330 mph (531 km/h)1,205 kW0.45 m²out of reach with 1 MW
Mach 0.5 (383 mph)1,872 kW0.29 m²out of reach

At 370 km/h, the tire tread undergoes 3,000 g of centrifugal acceleration (2,800 rpm): special-category tires are needed, and a 1.2 m² wing there produces 11 kN of downforce for 78 kW of drag.

Consumption and speed equations

Consumption per kilometer at constant speed \(v\):

$$e(v)=\frac{\tfrac12\rho\,C_dA\,v^2 + C_{rr}\,m\,g}{\eta}+\frac{P_{aux}+P_{fan}}{v}$$

with \(\rho=1.2\) kg/m³, \(C_dA=0.55\) m² (assumption, Tesla has not published the coefficient), \(C_{rr}=0.010\), \(\eta=0.88\), \(P_{aux}=400\) W. Range: \(E_{utile}/e(v)\) with 95% of nominal capacity usable. Top speed: \(P_{roues}=\dfrac{\tfrac12\rho C_dA v^3 + C_{rr}mgv}{0.9}\). Dynamic pressure at 370 km/h: \(q=\tfrac12\rho v^2=6.3\) kPa. Tread centrifugal acceleration: \(\omega^2 r\) with \(\omega=v/r\).

12The 1-megawatt battery

1 MW is a peak power: 14 to 52 s before 15 °C of heating.Drawing 1 MW from a 100 to 150 kWh battery is 6.7 to 10 C. The heat produced by internal resistance (141 to 354 kW) limits it before the energy does. On track, at a 400 kW average, 30 kW of continuous heat can be dissipated.
Current at 900 V
1,111 A
Heat at 1 MW
141-354 kW
150 kWh at 400 kW
22 min
For each configuration (capacity / cell resistance), the heat produced at 1 MW and the time before 15 °C of adiabatic heating. A bigger pack and low-resistance cells extend the full-power window.
Detailed table
Battery4680 cellsCurrent at 900 VPack resistanceHeat at 1 MW+15 °C afterRate
100 kWh, 3 mΩ cell1,0311,111 A172 mΩ212 kW (21%)23 s10 C
100 kWh, 5 mΩ cell1,0311,111 A286 mΩ354 kW (35%)14 s10 C
150 kWh, 3 mΩ cell1,5461,111 A115 mΩ141 kW (14%)52 s6.7 C
150 kWh, 5 mΩ cell1,5461,111 A191 mΩ236 kW (24%)31 s6.7 C

Recharging at 500 kW from 15 to 80% of 150 kWh takes 11.7 minutes, consistent with the announced "under 15 minutes". The 1 MW claim is tenable provided there is a 150 kWh pack and low-resistance cells.

Battery equations

Number of cells: \(n=E/97\) Wh (4680 cell). Architecture: \(n_s=243\) in series for 900 V (3.7 V per cell), \(n_p=n/n_s\) in parallel. Pack resistance: \(R=\dfrac{n_s R_{cell}}{n_p}\). Heat: \(Q=I^2R\) with \(I=P/U\). Adiabatic heating: \(\Delta T=\dfrac{Q\,t}{m_{cell}\,c_p}\) with 355 g and 900 J/(kg·K) per cell. Heat at partial power scales as the square of power: \(Q(P)=Q_{1MW}(P/1\,\mathrm{MW})^2\).

13Safety: crash, noise, blast

The hard point is not flight, it is storage.600 L at 690 bar contains 39 MJ, the equivalent of 9 kg of TNT. The jet is 135 to 142 dB at 15 m and blasts at 90 m/s at 10 m. Certifiable like a hydrogen tank, incompatible with open roads.
Window breakage
≈ 28 m
Noise at 15 m
135-142 dB
Mounts at 30 g
118 kN
Left, the overpressure radii in case the storage bursts (effective TNT equivalent 3.7 kg), to the scale of a car. Right, the blast speed behind a single 20 kN nozzle by distance.
Risks, numerically
RiskCalculated valueConsequence
Force on tank mounts (400 kg) at 30 g · 50 g118 kN · 196 kNmounts to be sized like a battery pack
Required burst pressure (2.25 ratio, hydrogen rule)1,552 bartanks heavier than the low estimate
5 psi overpressure radius (light building destruction)≈ 5 meffective TNT equivalent 3.7 kg
1 psi overpressure radius (window breakage)≈ 28 m
Safety venting in 60 s5.3 kg/s, parasitic thrust 2.9 kNventing must use opposed vents
Gas temperature on fast venting−40 °C after 25%; −94 °C at 50%liner and seal embrittlement; valve icing
Pressure cycles (one fill-up a day, 10 years)3,650below the 11,000 required for hydrogen: tenable
Mechanical jet power at 80 kN22 MW
Noise level at 15 m135 to 142 dBroad-homologation limit: 74 dB(A)
Blast speed behind a 20 kN nozzle90 m/s at 10 m, 45 m/s at 20 mflying gravel, danger to a following vehicle
Safety equations

Shock wave. TNT equivalent \(W=0.4\,E_b/4.184\) MJ (a pneumatic burst releases about 40% of the isentropic energy as a pressure wave). Distances via the Hopkinson scaling law: \(R=Z\,W^{1/3}\), with \(Z\approx3.5\) m/kg^{1/3} for 5 psi and 18 for 1 psi (Kingery and Bulmash charts).

Noise. Mechanical jet power \(P_j=\tfrac12 F V_e\). Acoustic power \(P_a=\eta_a P_j\) with \(\eta_a=0.2\) to 1% for a cold supersonic jet. Power level \(L_w=10\log_{10}(P_a/10^{-12})\); level at distance \(r\): \(L_p=L_w-20\log_{10}r-8\).

Blast. On-axis speed of a free turbulent jet far from the nozzle: \(u(x)\approx 7\,\dfrac{\sqrt{F/\rho}}{x}\), where \(F\) is the nozzle's thrust.

14Recharge and efficiency

Refilling a tank costs the whole battery. The gas returns 0.7% of the energy.Compressing 319 kg of air to 690 bar needs 100 to 144 kWh and 5 to 7 h at 20 kW. Hence the nitrogen station. The same work as the electric motors costs 129 times more energy through compressed air.
Energy per fill-up
100-144 kWh
At 20 kW
5-7 h
Overall efficiency
0.7%
What is left of 100 kWh drawn from the battery at each link: compression (50%), nozzle expansion (26%), transfer to the car during the 0-60 (5.3%). 0.7 kWh of useful work remains.
Links, numerically
LinkEfficiencyWhy
Battery → compressed gas (multi-stage compressor)35 to 50%compression heat lost
Compressed gas → jet kinetic energy26%incomplete expansion, cold jet
Jet → work on the car (0-60 mph)5.3%the jet exits at 549 m/s, the car moves at 10 to 25 m/s
Full chain0.7%product of the three
Recharge equations

Recharge energy: \(E=E_x/\eta_c\) where \(E_x=50.4\) kWh is the gas exergy (section 3). Time: \(E/P_{comp}\). Instantaneous propulsive efficiency of a nozzle on a mover at speed \(v\): \(\eta_p=\dfrac{2v/V_e}{1+(v/V_e)^2}\); integrated over the 0-60 (6.5 m, 0.45 s, 520 kJ of work for 65 kg of gas) it is 5.3%. Equivalent electrical cost: \(W/0.9\).

15What we don't know

Twelve missing data points, twelve explicit assumptions.Everything above is recalculated from public figures. Here is what Tesla has not published, the assumption used instead, and the measurement that would settle it.
Most sensitive
mass
Then
regulator
Then
Isp
UnknownAssumption usedHow to resolve it
Real mass of each version1,700 kg (base), 1,940 kg (Thrust), 2,400 kg (Rocket)public weigh-in
Gas (air or nitrogen) and real pressureair, 690 bar; 437 bar variant testedtank spec sheet
Split of the 80 kN across the 10 nozzles80 kN = the 4 rear ones; 60% downward for the jumpnozzle layout
Regulator, throat area, variable or fixed throat380 bar regulator, fixed throats 15 to 20 mmpneumatic schematic
Effective specific impulse56 s at 20 °C, corrected for coolingbench test: thrust and flow
Thrust profile during the demoregulated then decaying thrustOctober 15 telemetry
Inertia and nozzle positionhomogeneous body + tanks at the centerCAD model
Aerodynamic coefficient\(C_dA=0.55\) m²wind tunnel
Battery capacity and resistance100 to 150 kWh, 3 to 5 mΩ per cellcell spec sheet
Fan power80 kW (a single source)spec sheet
Tank crash behaviorhydrogen rules (GTR 13) by analogycrash testing
Regulatory status of flightnot calculableNHTSA / FAA decision

16Recommendations to Tesla

Eleven actions, each quantified.The most profitable: variable-throat nozzles, which multiply the gas usable at full thrust by 2.5 to 3.8 and make the 0.59 s figure and the landing reproducible.
Variable throat
× 2.5 to 3.8
440 bar storage
−74 kg
Smart fans
+37% / 10 kW
1
Variable-throat nozzles.
Keeping thrust constant during venting raises the gas usable at full thrust from 16% (above 380 bar) to 40% (down to 150 bar) or 61% (down to 60 bar). Makes the 0.59 s figure reproducible and doubles jump height.
gain: × 2.5 to 3.8 on usable gas
2
Store at 440 bar rather than 690.
For the same 319 kg of gas, the tanks weigh 313 kg instead of 387 (the 0.785·Z law), for 160 L more. Impulse per kilogram of system gains 12% and certification is simpler.
gain: −74 kg of tanks, +12% impulse per kg
3
Protect against the cold.
Stop venting before 25% consumption or heat the gas. Heating all the gas would need 7.5 MW over 5 s, impossible; a heat exchanger on the battery circuit recovers part of the +21% of available specific impulse.
gain: up to +21% Isp
4
Automatic landing braking
with a locked gas reserve (40 to 75 kg depending on height) that cannot be used for the jump.
gain: landing at 3 g instead of 55 g
5
Fans controlled by speed and mode.
Every 10 kW of permanent draw costs 37% of range. Reserve them for the track and for corners.
gain: +230 km of range
6
Vacuum monitoring with a dynamic margin.
Losing a skirt while cornering at 3 g is an instant run-off: grip drops back to 1.26 g.
gain: active safety
7
Certify the tanks like a hydrogen vehicle's.
Burst at 1,552 bar, fire, drop, 11,000 cycles, venting through opposed vents to cancel the 2.9 kN parasitic thrust.
gain: homologation becomes possible
8
Restrict the thrusters to closed circuits
via geofencing, with rear presence detection: over 135 dB at 15 m and 90 m/s of blast at 10 m.
gain: noise compliance and third-party safety
9
Drop the "flight" language.
The physical ceiling is 6 to 8 s. "Jump" and "boost" are tenable and honest.
gain: credibility
10
Drop onboard self-recharge
in favor of stations or a refill service: an onboard compressor consumes the entire battery (100 to 144 kWh).
gain: real-world usability
11
150 kWh pack and low-resistance cells
to hold 1 MW for over 30 s without exceeding 15 °C of heating.
gain: 52 s at full power instead of 14

17Innovations and conjectures: what the equations say

Eight leads, each proven by calculation, none tested on a bench yet.The same equations that explain the demonstration also say where the margins lie: in nozzle geometry, in how the gas is used, in temperature, and in the tank's place in the structure. Each lead comes with its proof and its quantified gain.
Height per kg of gas
× 1.7
Possible Isp
95 s
Noise with ejectors
−7 to −12 dB
Left: height reached with the same 100 kg of gas depending on the thrust applied (2,475 kg). Gravity loss is proportional to the thrust duration. Right: hover duration for 600 L by fluid and its temperature.

1. Point all ten nozzles downward for the jump

Proven conjecture

For a given gas mass, height depends on the thrust-to-weight ratio. At 48 kN (twice the weight), half the gas is spent fighting gravity. At 160 kN (6.6 times the weight), only 15%. Same 100 kg of gas: 13.1 m versus 22.2 m.

Velocity gained \(\Delta v = V_e\ln\dfrac{m_0}{m_0-m_{gaz}} - g\,T\) with \(T=\dfrac{m_{gaz}V_e}{F}\). The loss \(gT\) is \(\dfrac{1}{n}\) of the ideal velocity, \(n=F/mg\). 100 kg at 2,475 kg: 48 kN → 13.1 m; 80 kN → 18.3 m; 160 kN → 22.2 m; impulsive limit 26.1 m. Gimbaled nozzles, like on a launcher, give this gain without a single extra gram of gas.

2. Variable-throat (pintle) nozzles

Proven

A fixed nozzle loses thrust with pressure. A pintle that opens the throat as pressure drops keeps thrust constant down to 60 bar: 61% of the gas usable at full thrust instead of 16%.

\(F=C_F A_t P\): at constant \(F\), \(A_t(t)=\dfrac{F}{C_F P(t)}\). Throat area from 7 cm² at 690 bar to 80 cm² at 60 bar. Makes the 0.59 s figure and the braked landing reproducible with the current tank.

3. Ejectors: more thrust and less noise from the same gas

Proven conjecture

A nozzle wrapped in a shroud that entrains ambient air pushes harder at the same power: thrust grows as the square root of total flow. With entrainment equal to the primary flow, +41% ideal thrust and −12 dB of noise; real static ejectors give +20 to +50%.

At fixed jet power \(P_j\), \(F=\sqrt{2P_j\dot m}\) so \(F\propto\sqrt{\dot m}\). Noise scales as \(V_e^8\) (Lighthill's law): \(\Delta L=80\log_{10}(V_e'/V_e)\). Rocket 0-60 mph: 0.59 s → 0.49 s with +30%. Useful from a standing start, ineffective in flight (entrainment falls off with speed).

4. Heat the gas in-line, never inside the tank

Proven

Heating the tank reduces total impulse: at a fixed pressure, less gas is carried (276 kg instead of 319 at 80 °C). Heating the gas between the tank and the nozzle increases it: at 245 °C full expansion becomes possible without liquefaction and specific impulse goes from 56 to 95 s.

At fixed \((P,V)\): \(m\propto\dfrac{1}{ZT}\), \(V_e\propto\sqrt T\), so \(I\propto T^{-1/2}\). In-line: \(V_e=\sqrt{\dfrac{2\gamma}{\gamma-1}RT_0\left[1-(P_e/P_0)^{(\gamma-1)/\gamma}\right]}=933\) m/s at 518 K. Heating the whole tank needs 70 MJ (14 MW over 5 s): impossible. Heating the landing reserve (50 kg) needs 11 MJ: a 41 kg aluminum block at 300 °C, or 22 kg of molten salt. Hover becomes possible: 13.5 s instead of 8.

5. The tank as the chassis's spine

Conjecture

A 690 bar composite tank is already an extraordinarily stiff beam. Putting it to work in bending, like a rocket's tank, saves on the structure around it.

Pressure creates an axial stress equal to half the hoop stress; the axial margin allows a moment \(M=\dfrac{\pi P r^3}{2}\): 867 kN·m for a 20 cm radius, versus 23 kN·m required on landing at 5 g. The hard points are crash and joint fatigue, not strength. To be studied with hydrogen-rule crash tests.

6. Storage pressure: the lowest that fits the volume

Proven

Tank mass per kilogram of gas equals 0.785 times the compressibility factor. It rises with pressure. For 600 L, 440 bar is the mass optimum: it is also the pressure implied by the 250 kg reported by the press.

\(\dfrac{m_{res}}{m_{gaz}}=\dfrac{ZRT_0}{k}\) with \(k\approx107\) kJ/kg. Z = 1.25 at 440 bar, 1.54 at 690 bar: −19% of tank mass per kilogram of gas. Prediction: the production version will store between 400 and 500 bar, not 690.

7. Fans: power follows the skirt clearance

Proven

Suction power is proportional to the clearance under the skirts. Active skirts that track the road at 3.5 mm instead of 7 halve the power, and range climbs by the same amount.

\(P=\dfrac{C_d\,e\,L_{per}\sqrt{2/\rho}\;\Delta P^{3/2}}{\eta_f}\): 84 kW at 9 mm, 65 kW at 7 mm, 33 kW at 3.5 mm, 19 kW at 2 mm. Aerodynamic downforce alone (lifting surface 2.5 to 4 m²) only replaces the fans above 500 km/h: they remain necessary at any speed.

8. Battery: the cell resistance that makes 1 MW tenable

Proven

To hold 1 MW for a minute without exceeding 15 °C of heating, the cell must stay under 2.6 mΩ in a 150 kWh pack, and under 1.2 mΩ in a 100 kWh pack. The first target is achievable; the second is not with current cells.

\(Q_{adm}=\dfrac{\Delta T\,m_{cell}c_p}{t}=124\) kW (150 kWh); \(R_{pack}=Q/I^2=100\) mΩ; \(R_{cell}=R_{pack}\,n_p/n_s\). Prediction: the 1 MW figure will be announced as a 10 to 30 s peak power, with a 150 kWh pack.

What the equations predict for the production version (2028)
  • Storage between 400 and 500 bar, not 690: tank mass per kilogram of gas dictates the lowest pressure compatible with the volume (lead 6).
  • Regulated, constant thrust on the Rocket version (regulator or variable throat), otherwise the 0.59 s figure isn't reproducible (section 6).
  • Locked gas reserve for landing, 40 to 75 kg, invisible to the driver (section 7).
  • Flight time presented as a "jump": the physical ceiling of 6 to 8 s won't move without changing fluid (section 9, lead 4).
  • Station recharge via a cascade of pre-compressed banks, 3 to 12 minutes, with pre-chilled gas to offset the +117 K of fill heating; never via an onboard compressor (section 14).
  • 1 MW as a peak, 10 to 30 s, 150 kWh pack (lead 8).
  • Fans controlled by driving mode, switched off on the road to hold the 300 miles (sections 10 and 11).
  • Thrusters locked out off-track by geofencing: noise and blast incompatible with public roads (section 13).

These predictions follow from this page's equations under the assumptions of section 15. They will be verifiable once the spec sheets are published.

18Frequently asked questions

19Method, assumptions, limits

This study was produced with EQOS Forecast, the mathematical modeling and prediction tool from The Bright Company, which generates the equations for each subsystem from conservation laws and public figures, then computes and cross-checks them. All numerical values on this page were calculated with a reference equation of state for air and nitrogen (the CoolProp library, Lemmon's and Span's formulations), a 4th-order Runge-Kutta integrator and random draws for uncertainty. The online simulator uses the same equations with interpolated tables. Constants: \(g=9.81\) m/s², \(R_{air}=287.05\) J/(kg·K), \(\gamma=7/5\), \(T_0=293.15\) K, \(\rho_{air}=1.2\) kg/m³.

Not modeled: in-flight aerodynamic drag (111 N at 60 km/h, 0.8% effect over 2.6 s, verified negligible), body lift, rotation dynamics coupled to translation, structural strength beyond the orders of magnitude given, and anything that depends on unpublished data (section 15). The conjectures in section 17 are mathematical results under explicit assumptions; they remain to be confirmed on a test bench. This is not a certified engineering calculation: it is a reproducible model, with every assumption visible, that anyone can recompute.

Sources: Fortune (Oct. 17, 2026), InsideEVs (specs and recharge), EVKX, Drive Tesla Canada (suction), Teslarati (5,500 psi screen), BigGo Finance, Tech-Insider, CellCog, Brainwagon, EVXL (LeCun-Musk exchange), Wikipedia (Tesla Roadster, second generation; cold gas thruster), Top Gear and MotorTrend via the cited articles.

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Stéphane Jambu

Engineer (EPITA, 1996). 14 years in IT consulting, EDF, Renault, TF1, Carrefour. 10 years as an e-commerce merchant, 22,000 SKUs, 6 countries, 65,000 sales. SEO consultant and agency founder since 2014. Today Hi-Commerce runs 24/7 without him, thanks to teams and AI agents trained on his methods.

Calculations verified by EQOS Forecast Asia