CTR of AI Overviews on the rise: the click learns again
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A curve reversal after 12 months of freefall
A client calls me early March. E-commerce, 1,200 SKUs, organic traffic down 22% since January 2025. He says: « AI Overviews are killing me. »
I look at Search Console. Impressions stable. CTR falling.
Except since February 2026, CTR is rising. Not for him yet. But in the Seer Interactive data just released.
December 2025: 1.3% average CTR on searches with AI Overview. February 2026: 2.4%. +85% in two months. Across 2.43 billion impressions. 53 brands. 5.47 million queries. This is not a statistical accident.
For a year, I’ve watched all my e-commerce and media clients suffer the same pattern: Google displays an AI answer, the user stops clicking. Impressions stay. Traffic evaporates.
Today, something is shifting. Not a return to the old world. An adaptation. Users are relearning when to click.
It’s a weak signal. But it’s the first positive signal since the massive AI Overviews rollout in May 2024.
Three CTR levels: cited, non-cited, no AI Overview
The Seer Interactive study breaks down traffic into three segments. Three different realities.
Search without AI Overview: 3.3% average CTR. That’s the baseline. No AI, the user clicks normally. In reality, this CTR has even risen: from 2.8% in early 2025 to 3.8% in February 2026. Why? Because the queries that remain without AI Overview are the ones where the user wants to click. Complex comparisons. Buying guides. Detailed reviews.
Search with AI Overview, page cited: 2.1% CTR. You’re in the AI Overview. You lose 1.2 points of CTR compared to the non-AI world. But you stay visible. The user sees your link, your title, sometimes an excerpt. They can click if they want to dig deeper.
Search with AI Overview, page non-cited: 0.9% CTR. You’re in the classic organic results, but Google has put an AI Overview above. You’re pushed down. The user consumes the AI answer, then either leaves or clicks a cited link. You lose 2.4 points of CTR compared to the non-AI world.
Three segments. Three stratégies. If you’re not cited in the AI Overview, you’re in the red zone.
Behavioral adaptation: why CTR is rising
For 12 months, the user discovered AI Overviews. They learned to consume the answer directly. They stopped clicking.
Now they’re relearning. Not by obligation. By cognitive friction.
The AI Overview gives a generic answer. The user seeks confirmation. A review. A specific use case. An updated price. They click.
This is the DOSE framework in action. Dopamine: the user tests a new reward pattern. They consume the AI Overview (reward 1: quick answer), then they click to validate (reward 2: confirmation or deepening). Two sources. Double reward.
I’ve seen this with my clients since February. Bounce rates are dropping. Pages per session are rising. Users who click after reading the AI Overview are more engaged than those who clicked before the AI Overviews era.
Why? Because they already have a partial answer. They come looking for what comes next. Not the full answer.
It’s counterintuitive: lose the « first instinct » click to gain the « deep validation » click. But that’s what’s happening.
It doesn’t yet compensate for the total traffic loss. But it stabilizes. This is the first plateau.
Distribution by intent: where AI Overviews actually appear
Not all query types are equal against AI Overviews. The Seer study gives the breakdown:
- Informational queries: 36% AI Overview display. Less than I expected. Google doesn’t systematically show AI on « how to do X ». Sometimes it prefers a classic Featured Snippet.
- Transactional queries: 5%. Almost nothing. Google doesn’t display AI Overviews on « buy X » or « best price Y ». Too commercial. Too legally risky.
- Comparison queries: 95%. That’s massive. « X vs Y », « difference between A and B », « which is best among… ». Google pushes AI hard on these queries. It wants to be the source of comparative truth.
- Question queries: 86%. « Why », « how », « when », « is it ». The AI answers directly. CTR collapses.
If you’re in e-commerce, you have good news: your transactional queries are protected. Google almost never displays AI Overviews on direct purchase queries.
If you’re in media or informational content, you’re in the red zone. 36% to 86% of your queries are exposed to AI Overviews.
Strategy: invest in comparison queries to get cited. Build content that serves as a source for the AI. Not content that replaces the AI.
Paid search: stability amid organic chaos
While organic trembled, paid search stayed steady. The Seer study confirms it:
Search with AI Overview: paid CTR at 16.2%. Slight rise from 14.6% before the AI Overviews era. Why? Because the AI Overview pushes organic results down. Paid ads stay at the top. The user sees the AI, then the ads, then organic.
Search without AI Overview: paid CTR at 21.8%. Drop from 26% before. Why? Because queries without AI Overview are often more specific, where the user prefers organic.
Bottom line: paid search doesn’t suffer from AI Overviews. It actually benefits slightly on some queries.
I’ve tracked this with my clients for 6 months. Google Ads budgets stay stable. CPCs don’t explode. Conversions hold. While organic lost 20 to 30% of traffic.
This isn’t a reason to abandon SEO. But it’s a reason to balance. If you depend 90% on organic, you’re exposed. If you mix 60% organic / 40% paid, you absorb the shock better.
Impressions stable, CTR falling: the ghost visibility trap
A trap I see with 80% of my panicked clients about AI Overviews: they watch impressions in Search Console. They’re stable. Sometimes even up.
They think: « We’re still visible, all is well. »
Wrong.
The Seer study confirms it: impressions can stay stable or rise while CTR collapses. Why? Because Google displays your page in more AI Overviews, but users don’t click.
You’re visible. But you’re invisible.
I call this ghost visibility. You show up in the data. You don’t show up in traffic.
Concrete example: a media client, 450,000 impressions in January 2025, 14,850 clicks (3.3% CTR). February 2026: 520,000 impressions, 10,400 clicks (2% CTR). +15% impressions. -30% clicks.
Google cites their articles in more AI Overviews. But users consume the AI answer and leave. The client sees « 520,000 impressions » and relaxes. Until they check Analytics traffic.
The metric that matters now isn’t impressions. It’s CTR on impressions with AI Overview vs without AI Overview. If you’re not segmenting that in your reporting, you’re flying blind.
What to do with this data? Three levers for April 2026
CTR is rising. That doesn’t mean you’ll recover lost traffic. It means the situation is stabilizing. This is the moment to reposition your architecture.
Lever 1: Map your queries exposed to AI Overviews. Not all of them. The ones where AI Overview actually appears. Use a tool like Semrush or Ahrefs to track AI Overview display. Or do it manually: run your top 50 queries in private browsing, note which trigger an AI Overview. Segment: informational, transactional, comparison, question. You’ll see where you’re exposed.
Lever 2: Optimize to be cited in the AI Overview. Not to rank first in classic organic. To be an AI source. This means: short answers at the start of your article (50-80 words), bulleted or numbered lists, comparison tables, expert citations (even your own), clear definitions. Google cites structured, sourced content. Not 2,000-word blocks with no breakdown.
Lever 3: Invest in queries without AI Overview. Transactional queries, local queries, brand queries. That’s where CTR stayed at 3.3-3.8%. That’s where you keep your traffic. If you have an e-commerce catalog, push product pages on « buy X », « price Y », « where to find Z ». Google doesn’t display AI Overviews on these queries. You’re on protected ground.
I’m building these three levers with my clients since February. Results are fragile. But they hold. One media client stabilized traffic at -12% instead of -28%. One e-commerce recovered +8% by targeting transactional queries. This isn’t a return to the golden age. It’s adaptation.
AI Overview CTR audit: where you’re losing traffic
I review your top 50 queries. I segment those exposed to AI Overviews. I show you where you’re cited, where you’re ignored, where CTR holds. First call equals live audit.
Book a strategic call — 45 minFrequently Asked Questions
Is the CTR of AI Overviews really rising, or is this a statistical accident?
Rise confirmed on 2.43 billion impressions (Seer Interactive): +85% between December 2025 and February 2026. This isn’t an accident, it’s an adaptation plateau.
What’s the average CTR if my page is cited in the AI Overview?
2.1% average CTR for cited pages, vs 0.9% for non-cited and 3.3% on searches without AI Overview. Being cited divides your CTR by 1.6, being ignored divides it by 3.7.
Do AI Overviews appear on transactional queries?
No, only 5% display on transactional queries (« buy », « price », « order »). Google protects these queries to avoid cannibalizing paid ads.
Why is CTR rising on searches without AI Overview?
From 2.8% to 3.8% between early 2025 and February 2026. Queries remaining without AI Overview are those where users want to click: complex comparisons, detailed guides, in-depth reviews.
How do I optimize to be cited in an AI Overview?
Short answers at the start (50-80 words), bulleted lists, comparison tables, clear definitions, sourced citations. Google cites structured content, not long blocks.
